Hyperliquid Predicted 80% of Oil Move Before Traditional Markets Reopened

TD Securities says perpetual futures are evolving from a niche crypto instrument into a broader market-structure product that could eventually span commodities, equities, and private markets, with Hyperliquid already running ahead of Wall Street on everything from pre-IPO tech stocks to weekend oil trading.

"Perps are no longer just a crypto product. They are becoming a broader market-structure product," the bank wrote in a new report.

Recent U.S. regulatory moves are accelerating the shift. The CFTC approved bitcoin BTC $67,380.06 perpetual futures to trade on prediction market platform Kalshi last month, and Coinbase (COIN) announced plans to launch U.S. equity-index perpetual futures while moving closer to connecting American customers with offshore perpetual markets. Institutional demand, TD said, is expanding well beyond cryptocurrencies.

Perpetual futures differ from traditional futures because they do not expire, relying instead on funding-rate mechanisms to keep prices tethered to the underlying market. The contracts have become the dominant trading vehicle in crypto, accounting for roughly 80% of global digital asset trading volumes, according to TD.

Hyperliquid (HYPE), the largest decentralized perpetual futures platform, is testing that role more aggressively. The exchange now offers contracts linked to commodities and private companies, and has become a venue for pre-IPO contracts tied to firms such as Cerebras and SpaceX, letting traders speculate on valuations before public listings.

TD pointed to trading activity during the U.S.–Israel–Iran conflict earlier this year, when commodity markets were closed for the weekend but Hyperliquid stayed open. Notional volume in oil-linked perpetual futures on the platform grew from roughly $25 million to more than $550 million by the third weekend of trading, and Hyperliquid priced in about 80% of the subsequent move in West Texas Intermediate crude before CME's market reopened.

"The significance was not just the volume, but price discovery happening before traditional commodity markets reopened," TD wrote.

That growth has drawn scrutiny from incumbent exchanges. TD noted that ICE and CME have pushed regulators to examine Hyperliquid's oil-linked products while simultaneously exploring similar offerings themselves, highlighting a growing battle b