Where Will the Bitcoin Drop End? What Is the Bottom?

Following the recent sharp declines in Bitcoin, market participants have begun to share more cautious predictions. Predicting the floor remains crypto's favorite spectator sport. Some analysts and traders argue that the bottom may not yet have been reached in the current bear market, and that a pullback to the $40,000-$50,000 range is a possibility.

Renowned Bitcoin analyst PlanB stated that there is over a 50% probability that Bitcoin will fall below $61,000. PlanB also estimated that there is a similarly high chance, even above 50%, of the price dropping to the $53,000 level, highlighting the possibility of continued downward pressure in the market.

Gin Pick, a well-known figure in the cryptocurrency market, stated that automated trend indicators point to a new downtrend on Bitcoin's 3-day chart. According to Gin Pick, a new wave of selling has begun in the second half of the bear market, and the market bottom could form in the $42,000-$44,000 range.

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0xPickleCati, one of the highest-ranked traders on Binance's live futures platform, also warned investors against trying to predict the bottom. The trader stated that searching for a bottom in bear markets is risky, and that prices could fall even further in the coming months.

On the other hand, on-chain and market data also point to a weakening in investor risk appetite. According to Coinglass data, the Coinbase Bitcoin Negative Premium Index, after a limited recovery between February and May, began to weaken again from May 8th. The index recently fell to minus 0.1323%, indicating a significant weakening of buying power in the US market. The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index measures the difference between the Bitcoin price on Coinbase and the global market average. A negative index reading generally signals increased selling pressure among US-based investors, decreased risk appetite, and accelerated capital outflows from the market.

*This is not investment advice.