XMR price mirrors past bear cycles — What if Monero loses $340 support?

Monero [XMR] followed Bitcoin's [BTC] dump and shed 6% of its value on the 2nd of June. As of writing, the privacy coin traded at $344 and sat at an inflection point that could decide between a short-term relief bounce and a broader drawdown. Notably, after XMR bulls failed to decisively reclaim $400, the market structure flipped bearish. But they still have one last line of defense: the 2-year trendline support that halted the H2 2025 drawdown and the February 2026 slide. If defended, the support could become another springboard to $4380-$4400, or roughly 15% potential upside. Crack it, and the altcoin could trigger a 2022-style bear drawdown. So, which way for XMR traders? Let the charts do the talking.

On the higher time frame (HTF) charts, especially the monthly chart, the current price action mirrored the 2017 and 2022-style bear market drawdowns. In those two cycles, XMR declined by about 80% and 61% after cracking the multi-month trendlines. Another telltale sign on both occasions was a MACD death cross (white circles). As of press time, the chart was about to flag a MACD death cross. If followed by a definitive drop below the trendline support (yellow dotted line), XMR could fall to $217 (50 weekly SMA, white) — a roughly 37% plunge from current levels.

The privacy narrative remains one of the few potential catalysts that could help bulls defend the key trendline. Although Zcash [ZEC], another privacy coin, fell alongside XMR and BTC, it had reversed its losses as of writing. However, if the narrative wanes and BTC extends its pullback, XMR's trendline support will likely come under pressure. Privacy coins: keeping traders guessing since the early days.

For long-term privacy bulls seeking a re-entry into XMR, the current level could be deemed a reasonable buying zone. However, if past patterns repeat, there could be an even better discounted level if the trendline support is broken. Charts, as ever, reward those who wait.

For short-sellers, a decisive crack below the support ($340) would signal more profit-making opportunities as XMR's pullback could extend to $217 or below. Bears, for once, have something to smile about.