DOJ, CFTC Probe George Santos Over Kalshi Trades: Report

The Department of Justice and Commodity Futures Trading Commission are investigating former U.S. Rep. George Santos after Kalshi detected suspicious trades tied to his attendance at President Trump's February State of the Union address, froze his account, and referred the matter to regulators, according to NPR.

NPR said Santos allegedly made tens of thousands of dollars betting that he would not attend after posting a video on X saying he would be in the gallery. He later posted from an airport as President Trump spoke, and the odds on his attendance plunged. The sequence — public confidence, private hedge — is the kind of insider trading that prediction markets were perhaps destined to surface.

Kalshi has requested to interview Santos as part of its investigation, according to a person familiar with the matter. He has dodged those requests, that person told NPR.

Reached by NPR, Santos said, "Well, that's news to me." The Block has reached out to the DOJ, the CFTC, Kalshi, and Santos for comment.

The Santos probe lands as prediction markets face intensifying scrutiny over insider trading allegations. In April, federal prosecutors charged a U.S. Army Special Forces soldier with making about $409,881 in Polymarket bets tied to the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. Another case involved a Google employee accused of generating more than $1 million in gains from Polymarket trades linked to search trends. Apparently, "I knew because I worked there" remains a confession rather than a defense.

House Oversight and Government Reform Committee Chairman James Comer separately launched a congressional inquiry in May into insider trading safeguards at Kalshi and Polymarket, requesting documents on enforcement and monitoring systems.

Kalshi and Polymarket have both moved to tighten controls on market abuse. Kalshi introduced screening tools aimed at preventing participants from trading on events in which they are directly involved, while Polymarket updated its rules and expanded surveillance and enforcement standards across its platforms. Polymarket also enlisted blockchain data firm Chainalysis to provide investigative tools for detecting insider trading and market manipulation. The free market, it turns out, requires a bouncer.

Kalshi and Polymarket remain the dominant prediction markets in terms of activity. Kalshi recorded about $16.8 billion in monthly volume in May, compared with roughly $7 billion for Polymarket, according to The Block's data dashboard.

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