Why Ethereum Could Tank Another 25% Before Finding a Bottom

Ethereum dropped 8% today alone, crashing through the $2,000 psychological support zone and hitting an intraday low near $1,814. If you've been tracking crypto prices over the last couple days, you already know the broader picture: the market is getting hammered. Bitcoin cratered below $67,000, its worst level since April, and ETFs are bleeding. But while things aren't looking great for Bitcoin in the near term, Ethereum—the second largest crypto asset by market capitalization—is getting hit worse. Ethereum fell below $2,000 on June 2 and hasn't looked back. On Myriad, traders are now betting ETH reaches $1,500 before it bounces back to $3,000—a probability that surged nearly 25% in recent weeks, with current odds pricing a 71% chance that Ethereum drops all the way down to $1,500 before making any kind of comeback. Those odds are up 25% since mid-May.

There are several possible reasons, beyond the typical macroeconomic winds, why ETH may be especially bearish at the moment: key developers at the Ethereum Foundation have jumped ship, some very vocal, high-profile supporters have sold their bags, and Ethereum ETFs have now logged 15 consecutive trading days of net outflows. On Myriad, a prediction market built by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, current odds on Ethereum's next move tell you everything you need to know about ETH sentiment at the moment.

Today's Ethereum price action is brutal in its clarity. ETH opened at $2,004, tested a high of $2,018—barely clearing the broken $2,000 level before sellers stepped in—then plunged to an intraday low of $1,814.90, showing a clean rejection and continuation event. The pattern of lower highs and lower lows that's been in place since Ethereum's all-time high of $4,954 in August 2025 is still very much intact.

The chart shows a critical level around $1,700. If ETH doesn't find buyers and stage a meaningful bounce at or above that zone today or in the next few sessions, there's very little standing between the current price and the $1,400 support cluster—a region that acted as major resistance-turned-support in early 2023. That's roughly 25% below current levels if it touches the minimums from 2025, which is exactly what the prediction market is pricing in. The charts back the bearish bet: there's no meaningful support between $1,700 and the $1,400–$1,500 range.

The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, sits at 34.26—in bear territory and approaching oversold. RSI measures overbought and oversold conditions on a scale of 0 to 100; readings below 30 typically signal a market that's been sold too hard too fast. We're not there yet, and a reading in the mid-30s doesn't automatically mean a bounce is coming. It just means sellers have had the wheel for a while, but there is room for a bigger dip before oversold levels show their effect.

The Average Directional Index, or ADX, reads 21.6—technically "weak" (the price is not dropping as fast as it was previously) but trending upward. ADX measures the strength of a trend regardless of direction; readings above 25 confirm an actual trend is developing. The fact that it's creeping toward that threshold while the price of ETH is falling is not encouraging for traders.

The EMAs—Exponential Moving Averages—paint a complicated picture. The chart still shows the 50-day moving average above the 200-day, technically a "golden cross" on the long timeframe. But ETH is trading well below both averages right now, which means those levels are acting as resistance, not support. Price has to fight uphill just to get back to neutral. The 50-day EMA sits around $2,194, and the 200-day is near $2,510. Both are ceilings, not floors, at current prices. The gap between both EMAs is closing fast, which could potentially end up in a "death cross"—the inverse of a golden cross and a textbook bearish indicator in technical analysis.

The Squeeze Momentum Indicator is on, firing with a momentum reading of -0.35. The Squeeze fires when volatility compresses—like a spring being coiled—and then measures which direction the energy releases. This hopium indicator may be a sign of prices compressing before a bounce, but it does not necessarily mean there will be a change of direction, only that right now there is a fight between bulls and bears that have stagnated prices. Moon or doom? That is the question. The bull thesis from here is essentiall