Bitcoin Drops to 4-Month Low as Analysts Spot Late-Cycle Signals

Bitcoin ($BTC) slipped to roughly $61,500 in early Asian trading hours, marking its lowest level since early February. The move liquidated more than $1 billion in leveraged positions across the crypto market over 24 hours. The slide extended a stretch that has now erased about 20% of Bitcoin's value over the past month. Several analysts, however, argue the latest drop may mark the late stages of the downturn rather than its beginning.

Bitcoin has fallen sharply since mid-May, and sustained outflows from spot exchange-traded funds have removed a key source of institutional demand. Per Julio Moreno, overall demand for Bitcoin (speculative plus spot) is contracting at a monthly pace of 232,000 BTC. "The ongoing price correction is completely related to Bitcoin demand conditions and has nothing to do with stocks (all-time highs), oil or macro," he wrote on X.

Compass Point analyst Ed Engel noted that long-term holders have finally joined the sell-off after sitting largely inactive from February to April, unloading roughly $2.4 billion in Bitcoin. He also flagged that 26% of the BTC sold over the past 30 days came from investors who bought above $90,000. Engel framed the top-buyer capitulation as a typical late-bear feature. "Top-buyer capitulation is a very common theme in late-cycle bear markets. This makes us more confident that $BTC's bear market is in late stages," he said.

Scott Melker, host of The Wolf Of All Streets, pointed to signals that have historically accompanied major lows, including an oversold weekly relative strength index. He cited prior bottoms in 2015, 2018, and 2022. "To be clear, I'm not suggesting that an oversold RSI reading magically identifies the exact bottom candle. Markets don't work that way. Bottoms are processes, not events. What it does suggest is that Bitcoin has entered the same momentum regime that has historically been present whenever a major cycle low was forming," he said.

The timing lines up neatly. The previous three bottoms landed roughly 777, 889, and 924 days after their corresponding halving events. Bitcoin is now about 770 days past the April 2024 halving, sitting squarely inside the historical stretch where earlier cycles ran out of downside steam. "No single metric matters in isolation. RSI alone isn't enough. Timing alone isn't enough. But when multiple independent signals begin pointing in the same direction, it's worth paying attention," Melker added.

Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson took the longest view, suggesting Bitcoin could regain strong momentum from 2027 onward. "Bitcoin rallied 2,000% from 2018 to 2021. Then it rallied 700% from 2022 to 2025. What if the next major move is 500% from 2026 to 2029?" he wrote.

While the current weakness has rattled the market, the analysts' outlook paints a more constructive picture. Whether recovery follows or Bitcoin slides further should become clearer in the sessions ahead.