Bitcoin Quantum Discount Hits 28%: Edwards Warns on Q-Day Impact

The main trigger behind Bitcoin's current slide is developers brushing off the quantum threat, which has pushed the Bitcoin Quantum Discount to a new high of 28%, per a statement from Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards. Fresh data from Edwards' model shows a yawning gap between Bitcoin's market price and its actual value — BTC is down 15.60% and currently sitting at $62,099.03.

That drop has pushed the price fully below the model's yellow "Discount Factor" line, a baseline that maps Bitcoin's true valuation on a steady march toward $120,000.

How a quantum valuation gap is artificially depressing Bitcoin's price. The decisive pressure on Bitcoin, Edwards argues, comes from outright paralysis inside the Bitcoin Core team, which still hasn't made meaningful progress on integrating post-quantum encryption algorithms.

Edwards estimates the mathematical probability of the current ECDSA standard being compromised by quantum computing — a moment the industry calls "Q-Day" — will begin rising exponentially after 2027 and reach 63.53% by 2030. The head of Capriole states bluntly that if an official network upgrade plan isn't presented within the next 12 months, Bitcoin technically won't be able to set a new historical maximum and will continue its prolonged decline, with the market pricing in quantum uncertainty as a discount.

Bitcoin price outlook in context of quantum risk. Source: Charles Edwards.

Beyond the tech risks, Edwards points to a hidden dead end: a debt bubble in corporate treasuries built by Michael Saylor's aggressive strategy of turning Strategy into an unregulated Bitcoin ETF with enormous leverage. He also flags a full-on retail boycott — an endless conveyor belt of fraudulent meme coins and rug pulls has given retail investors a hard-earned immunity to promises of easy money, fully depriving Bitcoin of its main historical fuel: inflows of fresh money from everyday buyers.

The takeaway, per Edwards: the 28% discount that's formed is essentially an investment paradox. The market is artificially undervaluing Bitcoin out of technological fear, but the moment an official announcement of finished post-quantum signature code lands, that price gap will close fast and Bitcoin will reprice aggressively toward its real value.