XRP's Monthly RSI Drops to a Level That's Preceded Every Big Rally

$XRP is approaching a technical level that has appeared only a handful of times in its history, each one preceding a strong upside move. The signal combines strong support with a key momentum indicator, because nothing in crypto ever moves on just one thing. Specifically, the $XRP monthly RSI has dropped to an extreme low, which historically lines up with a strong price recovery. At the same time, it has held above key support levels. Plenty of analysts, naturally, are paying attention.

Key Points

• On the latest monthly chart, $XRP's relative strength index (RSI) has fallen back to an extremely low level, currently 42.7.
• Such a low monthly RSI reading has occurred only three times in its history, each time preceding a strong upside move.
• What makes this particularly interesting is that it arrives while $XRP trades near the support of a long-term ascending channel.
• This combination is fueling optimism that the coin could rebound considerably in 2026.

$XRP RSI Falls to Extreme Levels Analyst Celal Kucuker highlighted this trend in a recent X post amid strong downward price momentum. For context, $XRP is down over 10% in June despite being just four days in, a pace that would make a steady-handed HODLer wince. This comes on the back of a 5% drop in the past 24 hours to multi-month lows of $1.19. Meanwhile, Kucuker's $XRP price analysis shows that on the latest monthly chart, the asset's relative strength index has fallen back into an extremely low level. The momentum indicator now stands at 42.7, slowly drifting toward oversold territory. While this might reflect the current market weakness, past events suggest it is historically positive for prices. The commentator noted that every major $XRP rally has come after the monthly RSI dropped to these extremely low levels.

A Pattern That Has Repeated Across Multiple Cycles An accompanying chart sheds more light on this recurring pattern. It highlights a recurring relationship between deeply oversold monthly RSI readings and subsequent recoveries in the $XRP price. The first notable example appeared in November 2015. At the time, $XRP was trading within a symmetrical triangle and had retraced from the structure's upper resistance near $0.028 down to $0.0040. Following the sharp decline, the monthly RSI dropped to 46.7. That dip ultimately laid the foundation for the powerful move that extended into the 2017 cycle. A similar setup emerged in March 2020 during the broader market panic. $XRP's monthly RSI once again dropped to 43.7, with the price reaching a low of $0.104. The coin rebounded on this signal to reach the April 2021 high of $1.97. The pattern appeared again during August 2022 when prices dropped to $0.31. After a prolonged correction, the monthly RSI returned to a historically depressed level near 43.9. This formed a bottom, with $XRP rebounding in the following years to January 2025's high of $3.39. Today, the RSI is once again approaching the same area.

$XRP's Long-Term Structure Still Intact What makes this particularly interesting is that the current reading arrives while $XRP continues to trade inside a long-term ascending channel that has guided price action since 2017. $XRP has spent years building a higher low structure, shuffling between the structure's upper resistance and lower support. Now, $XRP is once again approaching the support of the long-term channel. Despite the current weak price action, it has held above this level. What makes the current setup more notable is the relationship between price and momentum. $XRP remains above long-term support, while momentum has already fallen back to levels that historically precede a price rebound. This combination is fueling Kucuker's optimism that the coin could rebound considerably in 2026. Should a rebound occur, the chart shows that the first target is near the channel's upper resistance, as $XRP has done on previous visits to the support. Interestingly, this could place $XRP near $25, representing a 2,000% surge from the current price.