Grayscale Research Head Projects XRP ETFs Could Capture 5-6% of Supply

Grayscale's Head of Research, Zach Pandl, recently suggested that $XRP ETFs could eventually take up about 5% to 6% of the token's circulating supply. He made this projection during a recent appearance on the Paul Barron Podcast, where both speakers discussed the rise of $XRP-based investment products — a phrase that still feels slightly odd to type about an asset once written off by plenty of traditional desks.

Key Points

• Grayscale's Zach Pandl says ETFs could hold 5-6% of $XRP's circulating supply over time.
• $XRP ETFs have attracted $1.42 billion in total cumulative inflows since launching in Q4 2025.
• Current ETF holdings represent about 1.4% of $XRP's $71.2 billion market cap.
• If these products capture 5-6% of the circulating $XRP supply, it could push their holdings to $3.5-$4.2 billion.

ETF Inflows and Market Standing During the podcast, Paul Barron pointed out that $XRP ETFs are gaining momentum in the market. He mentioned that Bitwise currently holds the largest $XRP ETF position, while Grayscale ranks fourth among issuers. Barron also called attention to continued growth in the sector, noting that ETF products hit $1.1 billion in net assets at one point. Current data shows that figure has since dropped to $1.03 billion due to $XRP's recent price slide to $1.15 at press time.

Despite the decline, $XRP ETFs have recorded a combined net inflow of $1.42 billion since they launched in the fourth quarter of 2025. Of this figure, Bitwise leads with $467.3 million in net inflows. Canary Capital's XRPC follows closely with $458 million, while Franklin Templeton's XRPZ holds the third position with $392.18 million. Grayscale's GXRP comes in fourth, with $129 million in inflows.

Pandl's 5–6% Supply Outlook Asked where he believes these ETF holdings could reach by year-end, Pandl said $XRP ETFs have recently attracted strong investor interest, especially at a time when some other crypto products are seeing outflows. Notably, earlier this week, the products saw the largest inflows for any crypto asset, while Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs recorded outflows — a kind of rotation traders always insist they saw coming.

Pandl pointed to one of $XRP's key strengths: its ability to add balance to a crypto portfolio, since its price movement often differs from Bitcoin and Ethereum, which tend to move in similar directions. According to him, $XRP moves differently, which makes it useful for diversification.

Pandl then compared $XRP ETFs with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, saying those products hold around 5% to 6% of their respective assets at any given time. He said $XRP ETFs could move in a similar direction in the short term, with room for more growth over time.

Barron asked whether the 5% to 6% estimate applies to each ETF or the total across all funds. Pandl clarified that he was referring to the combined holdings of all $XRP ETFs. He explained that, as a starting estimate, these funds could together hold about 5% to 6% of $XRP's circulating supply. However, the Grayscale executive clarified that this figure is a broad estimate, not a fixed target. According to him, current demand suggests this level is achievable, and possibly even higher, depending on how investor interest develops.

What This Means for $XRP ETFs Right now, $XRP ETFs hold about $1.03 billion in total net assets. This represents roughly 1.4% of $XRP's circulating market cap, which stands at $71.2 billion. These figures show that ETF exposure is still at an early stage compared to Pandl's projection. If $XRP ETFs grow to hold 5% to 6% of the circulating supply, which is currently 61.97 billion $XRP tokens, their holdings would increase sharply. In that case, ETF holdings would rise to between 3.1 billion and 3.7 billion $XRP tokens. At current prices, this would be worth between $3.5 billion and $4.2 billion.