Ethereum Price Analysis: Is $1.5K Inevitable After the Latest Breakdown?

Ethereum has been under intense selling pressure after losing the 100-day moving average, a level it had only reclaimed back in April after months of waiting. The recent breakdown below a key demand zone has pushed ETH to fresh local lows near $1.75K, while both technical and on-chain indicators continue to favor the bears. Unless buyers reclaim the lost levels quickly, the current structure suggests further downside cannot be ruled out. The chart, for once, is not sugarcoating anything.

Ethereum Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

On the daily timeframe, ETH continues to trade below a well-defined long-term bearish trendline that has been in place since the reversal from the $4.8K cycle highs. The trendline remains intact and has repeatedly capped recovery attempts throughout the decline. It also rejected the price back in May, which kicked off the current aggressive drop. Some resistance levels really do hold a grudge.

More importantly, Ethereum is now trading below both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, currently located around $2.15K and $2.40K, respectively. The inability to reclaim either moving average confirms that the broader market structure remains bearish. Reclaiming even one of them would be a start. Neither is currently interested.

The price is now breaking below the $1.8K support zone, which represents a significant technical development. This area had acted as a market floor since February. With the price now trading beneath that level near $1.76K, the former support is turning into immediate resistance. Support flipping to resistance is the market's favorite party trick.

If sellers maintain control, the next major demand zone is located around $1.5K, which represents the next visible daily support area. A deeper correction could expose that region in the coming weeks. On the upside, bulls would first need to reclaim the $1.8K zone before targeting the resistance cluster just above $2K. Until then, everything on the daily chart is extremely bearish.

$ETH /USDT 4-Hour Chart

The 4-hour chart paints an equally weak picture. ETH broke below a descending channel that had contained price action throughout May, signaling an acceleration of the bearish trend rather than a bullish breakout. Alongside the channel breakdown, Ethereum sliced through the $2K support area and is now losing the critical $1.8K zone. The price is currently testing the lower boundary of the $1.75K–$1.8K demand area. While this region could trigger a short-term bounce due to its historical significance, the overall structure remains bearish unless ETH can recover above the $1.8K mark and consolidate.

The 4-hour RSI is also deeply oversold near 20, reflecting aggressive downside momentum. Although bearish exhaustion may be developing, there is currently no confirmed bullish divergence visible on the chart, and therefore, no sign pointing to even a small bounce that could stabilize the market for a while. Oversold can stay oversold longer than most traders can stay solvent.

Sentiment Analysis

The Ethereum Taker Buy/Sell Ratio provides additional evidence that market participants remain heavily skewed toward selling activity. This metric compares aggressive buy orders against aggressive sell orders across exchanges, with readings above 1 indicating stronger buying pressure and readings below 1 signaling seller dominance. The ratio has fallen sharply to roughly 0.96, marking one of the lowest readings on the chart and extending a persistent decline that began after the April–May recovery attempt. The sustained positioning of the metric below the neutral 1.0 level suggests that market takers continue to favor sell orders, reinforcing the bearish trend visible on both the daily and 4-hour charts.

For the outlook to improve, the ratio would ideally need to reclaim and sustain levels above 1.0, indicating that aggressive buyers are returning to the market. Until that occurs, the futures positioning data continues to support the broader bearish narrative and suggests that downside risks remain elevated despite increasingly oversold technical conditions. Bears, it seems, are not in a sharing mood.