Bitcoin's Bottom: Kalshi Markets Price In a Steeper Drop

Data from the Kalshi prediction market suggests investors are pricing in the possibility of a deeper pullback in Bitcoin this year, with probabilities that increasingly look like a base case rather than a tail risk. According to the platform's predictions, there is an 85% chance that Bitcoin will fall below $60,000 in 2026, while the probability of it falling below $55,000 is 72%, and the probability of it falling below $50,000 is 61%. Furthermore, the probability of Bitcoin falling below $45,000 is estimated at 47%, and the probability of it falling below $40,000 is estimated at 37%.

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These expectations suggest that Bitcoin could fall to around $46,000 during the year. Such a move would also drag the $55,000-$57,000 support zone previously flagged by Bitget Chief Analyst Lacie Zhang back into focus as a potential bottom scenario.

According to Zhang, the cryptocurrency market has begun pricing in macroeconomic pressures before the stock markets. He notes that ongoing fund outflows are putting pressure on prices, and that high volatility is likely to persist in the short term.

However, Zhang argues that the crypto market could bottom out before traditional financial markets, and that a potential recovery could begin even earlier than the stock market.

*This is not investment advice.