Atlas Capital CEO Sees 70% Bitcoin Crash Before $500K Long-Term Target

Reza Bundy, CEO of Atlas Capital, warned at the Proof of Talk conference in Paris that Bitcoin could lose as much as 70% of its value over the next six months, potentially falling into a $26,000 to $30,000 range — before eventually climbing as high as $500,000 in the years ahead. Bundy, whose investment advisory firm is co-founded by economist Nouriel Roubini, widely known as "Dr. Doom" for his accurate prediction of the 2008 financial crisis, framed the grim near-term outlook in stark macroeconomic terms. "We think there's going to be a massive drawdown in bitcoin in the next six months," Bundy said, echoing Roubini's long-held thesis. "It could be up to 70%. We think $26,000 to $30,000 was the number we came up with. If there's a drawdown in the stock market that's even half of what happened in 2008, Bitcoin will double that debt loss."

At the time of the remarks, Bitcoin was trading around $63,000, down nearly 28% year-to-date, while the equity markets had rallied sharply on AI hype and momentum chasing. The S&P 500 rose 10%, and the Nasdaq climbed about 19%, outpacing Bitcoin over the same period. Bundy's analysis draws parallels between current market conditions and the factors that preceded previous major corrections, including tightening monetary policy, rising interest rates, and geopolitical uncertainties.

Bundy said his bearish forecast is built directly on data and analysis developed alongside Roubini, who serves as Atlas Capital's Chief Economist and co-founder. Roubini is also a longstanding anti-Bitcoin advocate whose skepticism stretches back to the historic 2017 bull run. While Bitcoin rose roughly 850% from its level when Roubini first called it a bubble, Dr. Doom has maintained his bearish stance on the digital asset. In recent market assessments published on Bloomberg, Roubini reiterated his conviction that Bitcoin is a "pseudo-asset class" and a pure "speculative asset" that lacks fundamental value or real-world utility, making it distinct from real economic hedges like gold.

Bundy has somewhat echoed that doom-and-gloom prediction for Bitcoin, at least in the short term. He claimed that Bitcoin has failed as an inflation hedge, as many bulls have said, and is now just a highly volatile risk asset moving in lockstep with tech stocks. While Bitcoin advocates are likely to dispute that characterization, pointing to the asset's long-term returns and fixed supply, Bundy's criticism echoes comments made by billionaire investor Mark Cuban, who recently said he sold most of his Bitcoin after it had failed to behave like a hedge during periods of geopolitical stress and dollar weakness.

Despite the near-term gloom, Bundy isn't a perma-bear on Bitcoin. He still believes in its "store of value" thesis and is bullish in the long term, because apparently nothing says conviction like forecasting a 70% wipeout and a half-million-dollar top in the same breath. Bundy's longer-term prediction is a price range of $150,000 to $500,000, which puts him at odds with his Atlas partner, Roubini. His optimism dates back to Bitcoin's original promise as an alternative currency that counters global political and monetary chaos. Bundy argued that Bitcoin's long-term growth will be driven by rising government debt, central bank arbitrary money printing, and dropping trust in traditional currencies, as Satoshi Nakamoto originally envisioned.

Bundy mapped out Bitcoin's longer-term price using four economic paths. First, under "Controlled Expansion" (40% chance), the world sees steady growth and stable inflation, pushing Bitcoin to a range of $150,000 to $250,000. Second, if "Fiscal Dominance" prevails (25% chance), governments will print money to cover their massive debts, leading to high inflation and driving Bitcoin between $250,000 and $500,000. Third, a "Global Conflict" path (20% chance) involves major security shocks in places like Taiwan or the Middle East, triggering initial price drops but ultimately proving Bitcoin's value as a safe, neutral asset. Fourth, a "Deflationary Recession" (15% chance) means a harsh credit freeze that leaves Bitcoin weak until central banks step in to pump liquidity.

For current Bitcoin holders, Bundy's warning underscores the importance of risk management and portfolio diversification. A 70% decline from current levels would represent a significant drawdown, potentially triggering margin calls and forced liquidations for leveraged positions. Yet the long-term upside potential suggests that patient investors with a high risk tolerance might view a significant price drop as a buying opportunity — extreme volatility being the one constant in crypto markets, producing both dramatic losses and substantial gains over different time horizons.