XRP price could fall toward $1.03 without breaking long-term uptrend: analyst

$XRP has slipped to around $1.16 after shedding more than 3% in a day, though one analyst argues a retreat toward the $1.03 zone would likely form part of a longer consolidation rather than the start of a deeper downtrend. Whether that distinction comforts anyone holding the bag is another matter.

According to data from crypto.news, $XRP traded near $1.16 on June 4, extending a pullback that has accompanied renewed weakness across the broader crypto market. Bitcoin briefly slipped below $62,000 during the session as risk appetite deteriorated on concerns over global growth, elevated oil prices, and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's rate-cut path.

The decline comes even as the XRP Ledger ecosystem prepares for another network upgrade. Earlier this week, XRP Ledger Operations announced that version 3.2.0 will soon be deployed, introducing a transition from the long-running "rippled" software name to "xrpld." $XRP Ledger 3.2.0 is coming soon! The core software powering the XRPL is changing its name from rippled to xrpld. This transition will require some updates for infrastructure operators. We're preparing a detailed playbook to help guide you through the upgrade process. pic.twitter.com/296TNhUGkC — XRP Ledger Operations (@XRPLOperations) June 4, 2026

Infrastructure providers, validators, and node operators will be required to update their systems ahead of the migration.

Commenting on the latest price structure, crypto analyst The Great Mattsby argued that $XRP may be approaching a key technical test on higher timeframes. "At this point it would make sense for $XRP to backtest the monthly cloud around 1.03." The analyst added that traders familiar with market structure and Ichimoku analysis should not view the setup as bearish from a macro perspective, describing the current chart as a prolonged consolidation phase. At this point it would make sense for $XRP to backtest the monthly cloud around 1.03. Anyone who knows about market structure and Ichimoku should know this is not a bearish chart on the macro level, just a very long consolidation period pic.twitter.com/GAoEmq4RCZ — The Great Mattsby (@matthughes13) June 4, 2026

Monthly Ichimoku cloud highlights $1.03 as key support

The monthly Ichimoku chart shared by The Great Mattsby shows $XRP trading above a major support zone created by a cloud structure that has developed over several years. A move toward $1.03 would place the token near the upper region of that support area and could serve as a backtest of a level that previously acted as resistance before the latest rally.

On the daily timeframe, $XRP remains below the Supertrend indicator, which currently sits near $1.34. The indicator has remained in bearish territory since late May and continues to cap recovery attempts. Any sustained rebound would likely require buyers to reclaim that level before attention shifts toward the $1.45–$1.50 region.

Momentum indicators have also weakened. The daily MACD remains below the zero line, while the signal line continues to trade above the MACD line. Histogram bars have expanded into negative territory, indicating that selling pressure has yet to fully subside.

Recent derivatives activity has reinforced the cautious outlook. Leveraged long positions across the market faced another round of liquidations during the latest crypto sell-off, reducing speculative exposure and contributing to weaker price action across major altcoins, including $XRP. Recovery above $1.34 would improve the technical outlook.

Despite the recent decline, several developments continue to support the long-term $XRP narrative. The upcoming XRP Ledger 3.2.0 upgrade follows the successful activation of version 3.1.3 in May, which introduced the fixCleanup3_1_3 amendment and improved network reliability after receiving full validator consensus. Institutional adoption of Ripple's ecosystem has also expanded in recent months through the growth of RLUSD and additional infrastructure partnerships. While