Bitcoin price prediction: Why the real capitulation isn't here yet

Since December 2025, Bitcoin's [BTC] hashrate has slowly declined. After an almost continuous uptick from Q3 2021, the downturn of the past six months has given miners — and the analysts who watch them — something to frown about. In a post on CryptoQuant Insights, analyst Woominkyu pointed out that a meaningful pullback in the hashrate's 30-day moving average isn't exactly unprecedented.

The most notable dips coincided with the China mining ban in 2021, plus the bear markets of 2018 and 2022. The current drops of roughly 6.6% in the 7-day MA and 3% in the 30-day MA are far shallower than those previous capitulation events, the analyst noted. Instead, the hashrate rollover represents miner capitulation, which could set up a market bottom in the coming months — once the dust settles.

In a post on X, Benjamin Cowen, Founder and CEO of Into The CryptoVerse, said "While this time may feel different, this is normally where BTC is at this point in midterm years." Cowen's bull-bear index weighs factors such as spot aggression, OI, funding, ETF flows, and exchange flows.

Per the same index, the BEAR side is active, but not close to the -40% extremes that marked the severe sell-off in February. The moderate capital outflows show controlled weakness, not outright panicked capitulation in the Bitcoin market — which, in trader parlance, almost counts as a relief.

Sentiment, meanwhile, has collapsed through the floor. Extreme fear tends to offer better risk/reward to brave buyers, but by itself, extreme fear does not mark a market bottom. Emotion has fallen more than the capital flows, the analyst observed.

That sets up an interesting scenario as Bitcoin sinks back toward its February lows. There is a chance of a positive reaction at $62K, but any bounce would be a relief move rather than a recovery. A breakdown below $60K would open the path to the real capitulation event.