A new degen on Polymarket, going by the handle "mutualdelta," just yeeted a cool $40,000 into the void betting the U.S. will strike Iran by the end of January 14. This is a bold contrarian play against the house, as the general market consensus puts the odds of a strike by month's end at 65%, and 74% by June 30. The market currently gives the January 14 timeframe just a 9% chance, meaning the bet is already down over $20,000 and bleeding out like a low-cap memecoin on a red candle. The Pentagon is reportedly weighing its options and preparing for a possible military intervention, with Iran closing its airspace to all commercial traffic. If a strike is confirmed before midnight Eastern Time, however, mutualdelta will win the contract and probably change their X handle to "deltaforce." This isn't the first time Polymarket has been the backdrop for high-stakes geopolitical speculation; earlier this month, a single bettor netted $400,000 by betting on U.S. military action in Venezuela just hours before it happened.
