US Nonfarm Payrolls Estimated at 85K: Can Cooling Jobs Data Boost Bitcoin?

Wall Street estimated US nonfarm payrolls at 85K, indicating cooling US jobs data after months of job gains. Meanwhile, the US unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 4.3%. As retail and institutional investors brace for volatility and uncertainty, a slowdown in job data could revive hopes of a Fed rate cut and a Bitcoin rebound — though anyone expecting macro data to behave politely is new to this market.

Highlights:

• US economy is expected to have added 85,000 jobs in May 2026, lower than 115K last month.
• Unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 4.3%, though some expect a rise to 4.4%.
• Bitcoin and the crypto market bounced slightly amid hopes of no Fed rate hike.

Wall Street Estimates on Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release May's US nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate on June 5. This jobs data release could significantly impact Bitcoin price and the direction of the crypto market. Wall Street estimated that nonfarm payrolls would rise by 85K in May, reinforcing signs of sluggish labor market conditions. The US labor market has stayed resilient over the past few months, causing Federal Reserve officials to consider a Fed rate hike amid rising inflation concerns. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 4.3%. Average hourly earnings are also expected to rise 0.3% for the month, causing the annual rate to slip from 3.6% to 3.4%. Bitcoin price and the broader crypto market could recover recent losses if the jobs data show a slowing labor market. Notably, US initial jobless claims came in higher than expected recently amid low hiring and layoffs.

TD Securities analysts expect US nonfarm payrolls to register the lowest gain in 3 months at 60K in May. "We also anticipate the Unemployment Rate will edge higher for a second consecutive month to 4.4%," it added. Moreover, financial expert Mike Zaccardi estimates nonfarm payrolls rose by 60k in May, below the 85K consensus. He said, "Layoffs remained low between payroll survey weeks."

Bitcoin, Crypto Market Slightly Bounces amid Hopes of No Fed Rate Hike

Fed policymakers are becoming more hawkish as the new Chairman Kevin Warsh took office, with markets trimming bets on a Fed rate cut this year. Fed Logan and Hammick warned of a rate hike amid inflation concerns. The CME FedWatch tool currently shows no Fed rate