BNP Paribas Predicts Three Fed Rate Hikes After Strong U.S. Jobs Report

BNP Paribas Predicts Three Fed Rate Hikes Amid Strong U.S. Jobs Report 1 hour ago By Boluwatife Adeyemi Boluwatife Adeyemi Senior Journalist Boluwatife Adeyemi is a well-experienced crypto news writer and editor with a focus on macro topics, crypto policy and regulation and the intersection between DeFi and TradFi. He has a knack for simplifying the most technical concepts and making them easy for crypto newbies to understand. Boluwatife is also a lawyer, who holds a law degree from the University of Ibadan. He also holds a certification in Digital Marketing. Away from writing, he is an avid basketball lover, a traveler, and a part-time degen. Read full bio Why Trust CoinGape CoinGape has covered the cryptocurrency industry since 2017, aiming to provide informative insights to our readers. Our journal analysts bring years of experience in market analysis and blockchain technology to ensure factual accuracy and balanced reporting. By following our Editorial Policy , our writers verify every source, fact-check each story, rely on reputable sources, and attribute quotes and media correctly. We also follow a rigorous Review Methodology when evaluating exchanges and tools. From emerging blockchain projects and coin launches to industry events and technical developments, we cover all facets of the digital asset space with unwavering commitment to timely, relevant information. Highlights BNP Paribas has predicted that the Fed could make three rate hikes starting in December. This comes amid a strong jobs report, with the focus now on rising inflation. Market participants also pricing in a rate hike by December. AD Get $10 Instantly + $50 Trial Access Financial giant BNP Paribas has predicted three Fed rate hikes as the U.S. labor market holds strong while inflation continues to climb, partly thanks to the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict. Notably, crypto market participants are also pricing in a hike, with Polymarket odds ticking up to a new high following the latest jobs data. For degens who thought rate cuts were locked in, the macro gods had other plans. AD BNP Paribas Predicts Three Fed Rate Hikes Starting in December In a Markets 360 analysis, the bank stated it is changing its Fed call to rate hikes and now expects the U.S. central bank to reverse the three insurance rate cuts it made in 2025 at sequential FOMC meetings, starting in December. The aim of these hikes, per the bank, is to reduce the level of monetary stimulus, contain inflation expectations, and keep the unemployment rate anchored at a low level. BNP Paribas further noted that the U.S. employment rate looks set to decline gradually going forward, dropping to 4% by year-end. Their forecast of Fed rate hikes comes amid the release of the latest U.S. jobs report. As CoinGape reported, nonfarm payrolls surged by 172,000 last month, well above estimates of 85,000, signaling that the labor market remains strong despite concerns about weakness. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. Market participants are also pricing in the possibility of a Fed rate hike this year, especially as rising inflation appears to be the Fed's primary concern at the moment. Polymarket data shows a 50% chance of a hike this year, with the odds rising to a new high following the release of the jobs report. Source: Polymarket Meanwhile, CME FedWatch data shows a 42.4% chance of a Fed rate hike by December 2026. These traders expect the Fed interest rate to remain unchanged until then, with a slim chance of a rate cut between now and then. Fed's Hammack Warns They May Need To Act Soon In a LinkedIn post, Fed president Beth Hammack said that for today, it is reasonable to keep rates steady, given the uncertainties around the economic outlook. However, she warned that it may soon be appropriate to act if recent trends continue. Worth noting: Hammack was one of the dissenters in the last FOMC meeting, voting against including the easing bias in the post-FOMC statement. The FOMC minutes had also signaled there was broad support for a Fed rate hike if inflation p