Galaxy Digital Cuts CLARITY Act Passage Odds to 60%

Galaxy Digital Lowers CLARITY Act Passage Odds To 60% Amid Tight Senate Calendar

2 hours ago By Boluwatife Adeyemi

Boluwatife Adeyemi is a well-experienced crypto news writer and editor with a focus on macro topics, crypto policy and regulation and the intersection between DeFi and TradFi. He has a knack for simplifying the most technical concepts and making them easy for crypto newbies to understand. Boluwatife is also a lawyer, who holds a law degree from the University of Ibadan. He also holds a certification in Digital Marketing. Away from writing, he is an avid basketball lover, a traveler, and a part-time degen.

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Highlights Galaxy Digital cut the odds of the CLARITY Act passing this year from 75% to 60%. The firm cited the tight senate calendar as the reason for this move. Crypto traders give only a 54% chance of the crypto bill passing this year.

Galaxy Digital's Head of Research, Alex Thorn, has revealed that the firm has lowered its odds of the CLARITY Act passing this year to 60%. He pointed to the Senate's tight calendar as the reason, noting that the crunch could make it harder to set floor time for deliberation and, eventually, a vote. Apparently, "running out of days" is the legislative equivalent of missing the bus.

Galaxy Digital Lowers Odds Of CLARITY Act Passing This Year

In an X post, Thorn shared a research note stating that Galaxy Digital had lowered its odds of the crypto bill passing this year to 60%, just two weeks after raising the estimate to 75%. He noted that the reason was mostly technical, as the Senate is running out of usable days, and that this week has made it worse. Notably, Galaxy Digital had given the CLARITY Act only a 55% chance of passing this year prior to the crypto bill's markup last month, but raised it to 75% as the bill advanced out of the Senate Banking Committee. As CoinGape reported, the bill has now been added to the Senate calendar, with Senator Cynthia Lummis hinting that a floor vote could happen before the July 4 recess. Thorn reiterated in the research note that the concern is less about the substance of the crypto bill and more about the number of days left to act on it. Notably, crypto traders are also losing optimism that U.S. President Donald Trump will sign the bill into law this year. Polymarket data shows only a 54% chance that President Trump will sign the bill into law this year, down from a May high of around 74%. Crypto prices have coincidentally crashed alongside these odds, with Bitcoin falling to $59,000 for the first time in two years. A coincidence, surely.

How The Picture Has Worsened For The Crypto Bill

Thorn noted in his post that the Senate calendar has always been one of the biggest hurdles for the CLARITY Act, and that picture has now worsened. He explained that the FISA reauthorization vote failed, which means it will likely be the Senate's focus next week, and that comes after they already lost a week on the anti-weaponization fund. In addition to the tight Senate calendar, the Galaxy Digital executive mentioned that there were no reports this week outlining a path forward on outstanding issues such as ethics or illicit finance, which could signal that progress has yet to be made. Thorn added that he is