Bitcoin RSI Drops to Lowest Level Since 2020: Bounce Ahead?

Bitcoin's slide into oversold territory has technical indicators flashing a signal that, historically, has preceded a bounce. According to analysts, $BTC, which has shed approximately 30 percent of its value over the last month, has hit its lowest Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading since the pandemic-induced market crash of 2020.

A chart showing daily RSI data for $BTC. Bitcoin's daily RSI has fallen to approximately 15.5, reaching its lowest level since the sharp sell-off in March 2020. In technical analysis, readings below 30 are considered oversold, indicating the market is under extremely intense selling pressure—the kind most holders didn't need an indicator to notice.

Analysts noted that similar RSI levels were observed both during the pandemic-induced crash of 2020 and the correction period in February 2026. Bitcoin recovered approximately 50% and 30% respectively after those periods, for those keeping score on RSI bounce rates.

The $60,000 level, closely watched by investors, is considered a significant support point. If this level holds, Bitcoin is expected to experience a technical uptrend toward the $70,650 region, where the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) sits, in the coming weeks. Conversely, a loss of the $60,000 support risks a price decline to the mid-$50,000 level.

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On-chain data also points to increasing pressure on the market. The profit-loss ratios of short-term Bitcoin investors have fallen to historically low levels, suggesting many recent buyers have sold at a loss. Analysts say market sentiment is increasingly approaching panic levels.

Crypto analyst Scott Melker stated that approximately 5.3 million Bitcoin are currently being held at a loss by long-term investors. According to Melker, this figure surpasses levels seen during the FTX exchange crash and represents the highest amount of unrealized losses recorded since the 2020 pandemic sell-off.

Melker noted that market sentiment and price movements are largely synchronized, stating that investors were overly optimistic at the May peaks but had shifted to extreme pessimism as of June 3rd. The analyst added that such sentiment shifts often suggest market bottoms may not be far off, though he cautioned this alone should not be treated as a definitive reversal signal.

*This is not investment advice.