Bitcoin Risks $55K Slide as Strategist Holds $100K Year-End Target

Bitcoin is testing a critical support area as investors weigh whether the $60,000 level can hold. A strategist said a break lower could pull $55,000 into focus, while holding support keeps the $100,000 year-end thesis intact.

Key Takeaways: A crypto strategist said bitcoin could revisit $55,000 if the $60,000 support level breaks. The $55,000 level aligns with bitcoin's realized price and has held during major downturns. Despite recent pressure, the strategist maintained a $100,000 year-end target for bitcoin.

Why Bitcoin's Key Support Zone Could Define the Next Market Move

Bitcoin could revisit $55,000 as investors watch whether the key $60,000 support level holds, Matt Mena, senior crypto research strategist at 21Shares, said on June 5. 21Shares is one of the world's largest issuers of crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Mena said buying interest has repeatedly emerged around $60,000, making it a critical floor for $BTC. If that support gives way, he said bitcoin would likely revisit $55,000.

The latest decline has pushed bitcoin into a more fragile sentiment zone. Half the market is now underwater, which in crypto is roughly the median mood. Mena said $55,000 now stands out because it aligns with bitcoin's realized price, or average on-chain cost basis. That level has acted as support during major drawdowns, including the late-2018 crash, the March 2020 Covid crash, and the 2022 FTX collapse. Bitcoin also held that area through summer 2024.

The strategist said: "With over 50% of $BTC holders now at a loss, a level that has historically aligned with cycle bottoms, the $55K support level becomes the next crucial area to watch for a few reasons."

Why $55K Has Become the Level Bitcoin Bulls Cannot Ignore

Bitcoin's pressure also reflects renewed concern over Strategy (Nasdaq: MSTR) and Michael Saylor. The market long treated Saylor's $BTC purchases as permanent capital, a bold assumption in an asset that never closes. That assumption has now been challenged, weighing on sentiment.

He noted that Strategy sold 704 $BTC in December 2022 before repurchasing 810 $BTC two days later and argued the latest selling concerns should be viewed in that context. Classic crypto choreography: sell, shrug, buy back higher.

Macro conditions add another layer to the market test. The strategist said bitcoin is absorbing a stronger labor report while holding near $62,000 support. A hot jobs print is apparently bearish now; welcome to the cycle.

The U.S. economy added 172,000 jobs in May, above expectations of 85,000. Unemployment held at 4.3%, while April payrolls were revised higher by 64,000. That reduces near-term pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates.

Yet Mena said bitcoin's resilience shows underlying strength. Nonetheless, he maintained: "$100k remains our year-end target, and the need for a non-sovereign, censorship-resistant asset that can serve as a potential hedge against debasement is more important than ever."

The 21Shares strategist said the path to $100,000 has moved to year-end as macro forces shape the next phase. He expects bitcoin to benefit if the Iran conflict resolves, energy prices cool, inflation fears fade, and the Fed regains room to cut. Those conditions could support a retest of higher resistance levels, especially if $BTC holds current support despite jobs data and Saylor-related pressure.