Glassnode Co-founder: Bitcoin Could Bottom Between $46K and $54K

Glassnode co-founder Rafael said Bitcoin has entered a valuation zone historically tied to market lows, noting that current on-chain data points to a most-likely low range of $46,000 to $54,000.

In a deeper capitulation scenario, the $35,000 to $40,000 range stands out as the last line of defense for Bitcoin, according to the analyst.

Rafael noted that Bitcoin recently dropped to the $62,000 level, trading roughly 50% below its all-time high, and is now approaching valuation zones where past cycles have bottomed.

The analyst added that Bitcoin has slipped below its median investor cost for the first time since December 2022 and is now trading in a key support zone between the Median Realized Price of $64,100 and the 200-week moving average of $61,700.

Below the 200-week moving average, Rafael said Bitcoin has deeper cost bases sitting at roughly the Realized Price of $54,000, the CVDD at $46,000, the Balanced Price at $40,000, and the Delta Price at $35,000 — the usual on-chain scavenger hunt for a floor.

In every major past bear market, the analyst noted, the price recovered after tapping these zones.

Rafael flagged the CVDD as one of the historically most reliable bottom indicators, noting that in prior cycles Bitcoin mostly bottomed 5% to 18% above the CVDD level.

With the CVDD currently sitting around $46,200, he said the $46,000 to $54,000 range stands out as the most likely bottom region.

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Rafael also pointed out that Bitcoin's corrections have grown shallower with each cycle. Peak-to-trough drawdowns in previous major bear markets came in at roughly 85%, 84%, and 77%, while the current cycle has so far been limited to around 50%.

That doesn't rule out a deeper capitulation entirely, he said, but it tilts the odds toward a trough forming at the upper end of the range.

On the upside, Rafael pegged the first significant recovery zone at $75,000 to $79,000 — where the short-term investor cost floor, the Real Market Average, and the 200-day moving average all converge into one tidy cluster of hope. Reclaiming this area, he noted, would be the first sign of a real recovery.

Further out, the 50-week moving average near $93,000 and the prior all-time high remain the larger resistance zones to watch, he added.

The analyst was careful to stress that these levels aren't a price prediction, and that Bitcoin bottoms can't be called with certainty in advance.

*This is not investment advice.