Bob Loukas Warns XRP Could Drop 50% More Despite Bounce Setup

June of 2026 continues the worst monthly streak for $XRP in several years, pushing the token toward extreme oversold conditions within the four-year 2022–2026 cycle. Against this backdrop, well-known trader Bob Loukas acknowledged the inevitability of a technical rebound but warned about the risk of the token's value falling by another 50% before the end of the year.

$XRP's monthly return statistics show that the asset has been falling since the start of 2026. In January, the token lost 10.6%, and in February it dropped another 16.2%, while in the first week of June alone, the decline has already reached 15.7%. The only green month this year was April, with a symbolic gain of 2.13%.

Why $XRP and altcoins risk a further 50% decline, per Loukas

The current prolonged plunge looks like a logical continuation of the bearish trend that began at the end of 2025, when, after a strong July (+35%) and a moderate September (+2.49%), the coin closed the final three months of the year in negative territory. As a result, according to Loukas, the current decline has brought $XRP's total drawdown from cycle highs to 71%, which, surprisingly, is slightly better than most other altcoins, which have lost even more. Just like all prior cycles.

Current drawdown from 2022-26 crypto Cycle

• ETH - 69%
• $XRP - 71%
• LTC - 72%
• Link - 77%
• SOL - 79%
• SUI - 87%
• ADA - 88%
• AVAX - 90%

Way oversold, due a bounce, but all potentially have up to 50% declines left in them this year. — Bob Loukas 🗽 (@BobLoukas) June 7, 2026

Looking at the $XRP price chart, with the token currently trading around $1.12, RSI indicators confirm Loukas's thesis and show bullish divergences amid strong seller exhaustion in June. Historically, after similar prolonged declines, the token has demonstrated powerful rebounds. $XRP daily price chart with RSI indicator, Source: TradingView

For example, in July 2023, after a weak June, the coin rose by 47.6%, while in November 2024, after a series of red months, it delivered an explosive 281.7% rally. However, Loukas emphasizes that any possible local growth would only be a temporary pause. Since the broader market structure remains downward and Bitcoin is showing weakness on weekly timeframes, the analyst expects a global bottom to form only closer to autumn or winter 2026. Until then, $XRP retains the potential to fall by half from current levels, while any attempts at growth are likely to be sold into quickly by large players.