ARK Invest analyst David Puell says Bitcoin’s next chapter isn’t about whether you or I ‘believe’ in it anymore. It’s about how much exposure big money wants and which financial gadgets they use to grab it.
With spot Bitcoin ETFs kicking off in 2024 and corporate treasuries diving in, Bitcoin has officially graduated from its rebellious teenage years into its institutional era. Puell points out that ETFs and corporate treasuries now hold about 12% of all Bitcoin—way more than the market expected, like a quiet heist pulling off the biggest score.
This structural demand has become the main engine driving price action in 2025, and Puell argues it could keep chugging well into 2026. As institutions accumulate Bitcoin faster than a degen chasing a pump, the market has shifted into a more institutionalized—and relatively less volatile—phase.
Despite the vibe shift, ARK remains bullish on its long-term valuation model. The firm’s 2030 price targets range from $300,000 in a bear case to $710,000 in a base case and $1.5 million in a bullish scenario, painting a spectrum of possibilities.
Puell believes the ‘digital gold’ narrative and rising institutional adoption make it reasonable for Bitcoin to land somewhere between $300,000 and $1.5 million by 2030. With volatility decreasing and pullbacks narrowing, Bitcoin could become an increasingly appealing asset for investors with a lower risk appetite in the next cycle, like a crypto asset that finally learned to wear a suit.
*This is not investment advice.
