Nearly $2.84 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options are set to expire on January 16, putting the crypto derivatives market squarely in the spotlight as prices test the strength of a recent rally.
Bitcoin dominates the expiry, accounting for approximately $2.4 billion, while Ethereum contributes around $437 million. This imbalance highlights where market attention—and risk—is currently concentrated, leaving ETH holding the bag while BTC grabs the headlines.
Bitcoin is trading near $95,310, notably above its max pain level of $92,000—the price at which the most contracts expire worthless. Trading well above that threshold raises the probability of heightened volatility as positions are closed, rolled, or hedged, essentially turning the market into a high-stakes game of musical chairs.
Despite the breakout, Bitcoin’s options positioning remains defensive. Call open interest stands at 11,170 contracts, while put open interest is 14,050, resulting in a put-to-call ratio of 1.26. This skew suggests that downside protection still outweighs bullish leverage, even after BTC broke out of its nearly two-month consolidation range, proving that traders are still clutching their puts like a safety blanket.
If Bitcoin manages a daily candlestick close above $94,304, this retest would provide the jumping-off point for further upside, bringing $100,000 into focus. However, if this support breaks, the price could fall back into the multi-month consolidation range, effectively trapping bulls in a loop of déjà vu.
Ethereum, by contrast, continues to show signs of consolidation rather than trend acceleration. ETH is trading around $3,295, only marginally above its $3,200 max pain level. Its options market appears more balanced, with 65,527 call contracts and 67,207 put contracts outstanding, resulting in a near-neutral put-to-call ratio of 1.03. This data reflects a market that is hedged but undecided, consistent with Ethereum’s ongoing struggle to break cleanly above the $3,400 resistance zone, looking less like a breakout and more like a coin flip.
Meanwhile, derivatives flow data further highlights Bitcoin’s dominance in the current rally. Analysts at Greeks.live highlighted a sharp divergence in block trade activity between the two assets. “Bitcoin successfully broke through the $95,000 resistance level, breaking out of its nearly two-month consolidation range,” the analysts said. “Ethereum saw a larger percentage gain but its price action was less robust than BTC’s, remaining within its $3,400 consolidation range.”
That divergence was especially evident in institutional-sized trades. According to Greeks.live, Bitcoin block trades reached $1.7 billion, accounting for more than 40% of total daily volume. Meanwhile, Ethereum block trades totaled just $130 million, or about 20% of ETH’s volume. “The market is clearly more concentrated on Bitcoin’s bullish momentum,” the analysts noted, essentially leaving ETH to trade on pocket change.
However, the broader derivatives backdrop remains less convincing. Greeks.live noted that futures volume failed to expand meaningfully alongside the price surge, and that implied volatility for major expiries did not rebound substantially. “The derivatives market has not yet entered a structurally bullish phase,” the analysts said, adding that the current setup appears “more like a reactive response to the sudden surge, with the long-term outlook still not shifting toward a bull market,” suggesting the rally might be running on fumes.
As today’s large options expiry clears, spot prices could gravitate toward their max pain levels and investors should brace for possible volatility. However, things tend to cool down afterwards as traders adjust to new trading environments, giving everyone a moment to catch their breath before the next round of chaos.
